Showing posts with label money. Show all posts
Showing posts with label money. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Santiago is the 7th priciest city in Latin America

[from emol, 12 July 2011]

Santiago de Chile es la séptima ciudad más cara de América Latina

En el índice de costo de Vida de Mercer 2011 la capital chilena ascendió del lugar 123 al 75


SANTIAGO.- Santiago de Chile es la séptima ciudad más cara de América Latina, según el índice de costo de Vida de Mercer 2011 dado a conocer este martes.

El sondeo – que abarca 214 ciudades en cinco continentes y mide los costos comparativos de más de 200 rubros en cada ciudad, incluyendo vivienda, transporte, alimento, ropa, artículos para el hogar y entretenimiento- destacó las posición de la capital chilena, que ascendió del lugar 123 al 75; y la ciudad de Caracas, que subió 49 posiciones, al ocupar el sitio 51 del 100, por la alta tasa de inflación de bienes y servicios.

En América Latina coloca a Sao Paulo y Río de Janeiro en los lugares 10 y 12, respectivamente, como las ciudades más caras de la región.

Read the rest of the article here.

Click here for the complete list.

Ranking de ciudades de América Latina 2011

010.- Sao Paulo - Brasil
012.- Río de Janeiro - Brasil
033.- Brasilia - Brasil
051.- Caracas - Venezuela
053.- La Habana - Cuba
063.- Bogotá - Colombia
075.- Santiago - Chile
127.- Montevideo - Uruguay
138.- Lima - Perú
146.- San Juan - Puerto Rico
148.- Ciudad de México - México
159.- Buenos Aires - Argentina
165.- San José - Costa Rica
168.- Ciudad de Guatemala - Guatemala
183.- Monterrey -México
196.- Quito -Ecuador
199.- San Salvador - El Salvador
204.- Asunción - Paraguay
208.- Tegucigalpa - Honduras
212.- La Paz - Bolivia
213.- Managua - Nicaragua

Monday, July 11, 2011

don't privatize!

[from Jude Webber @ Financial Times, 11 July 2011]

Chile leader’s cheers turn to jeers

Chile's President Sebastián Piñera

Less than a year ago, Sebastián Piñera, Chile’s president, was the hero of the hour – the president whose government had pulled off the incredible feat of rescuing 33 miners trapped underground for two months.

But now his popularity has sunk to 31 per cent, according to a new Adimark poll, lower than any other president in Chilean history, and the cheers have been replaced by jeers from students and environmentalists. Now copper workers at Codelco, the state corporation, are expressing their dissatisfaction over fears that the government plans to privatise the country’s key cash cow.

Codelco is the largest copper-producing company in the world

Read the rest of the article here.

inflation rate? it's the IMF's fault

[from Tim Worstall @ Forbes, 11 July 2011]

Hmm. So the general thought is that the government is being, umm, less than open perhaps about the real inflation rate. So someone tapping on a calculator and exposing that is unwelcome. Well, yes, but really, bringing down the weight of the law on people who simply disagree with government over the numbers? A bit harsh really, so again, why are they doing this?

About a quarter of Argentina’s debt is indexed to inflation.

Aha!

The official rate is just under 10%, which is the rate that the bondholders get. The real rate….no, sorry, the rate calculated by those private sector economists which of course may or may not be correct….is over 20%.

This argument over the numbers is worth real money then: possibly worth a bit of oppression of private sector economists in the eyes of the Argentine Government.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Argentine inflation: 9.7% or 25%?

[from Steve Abramowicz & Bloomberg, 10 July 2011]

Argentina Files Criminal Charges Against Company For ’False’ CPI Reports

Argentina stepped up its pressure on economists who say the government has underestimated inflation in its official reports for more than four years by filing criminal charges against research company M&S Consultores SA.

Interior Commerce Secretary Guillermo Moreno filed charges against M&S on July 8, saying the company stood to profit by claiming prices in South America’s second-biggest economy are rising faster than the 9.7 percent annual rate reported by the national statistics institute. In February the government began fining economists 500,000 pesos ($121,000) for saying prices were rising as much as 25 percent per year.


“The false information generated by the consultant, intended to benefit not only the company but agents in the financial market who are clients of the company, with extraordinary profits, does damage to consumers and the state,” according to a statement on the government’s website. “If M&S were successful in convincing the community of the veracity of its inflation, we would have an annual adjustment of between 12 percent and 23 percent over current values.”

A call to M&S Consultores’s Buenos Aires office after regular business hours wasn’t answered.

Analysts including former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna say the government’s reports have underreported inflation since January 2007, when then-President Nestor Kirchner began changing personnel at the national statistics institute in a bid to “improve operations.” The government invited the International Monetary Fund to visit the country last year to help create a new inflation index.

‘No Foundation’

“There is no foundation for these charges,” Mariano Lamothe, chief economist at Buenos Aires-based research company Abeceb.com, said in an interview yesterday. “It’s an attempt to silence the voices who since 2007 have said the government’s reports are false. It’s another way to threaten economists.”

Argentina’s inflation-linked bonds have fallen 11.7 percent this year as the government fined economists and failed to react to the recommendations made by the IMF in its report, which wasn’t made public. Similar Brazilian debt has returned 3.5 percent this year.

A group of congressmen released a report June 14 saying prices rose 23.5 percent from a year earlier, basing their data on the average estimates of eight analysts, all of whom face fines if they publish their findings.

Lawmaker Challenge

Patricia Bullrich, one of 16 lawmakers in the 257-member lower house to endorse the report, challenged Moreno at the time to fine lawmakers in the same manner as economists.

“Let’s see if Moreno fines us now, let him come fine us,” Bullrich said in an interview on Radio 10.

Graciela Bevacqua, who was fired in 2007 as head of the consumer price index division at the statistics agency, was assessed the maximum fine earlier this year. Other researchers that have been punished include Buenos Aires-based Abeceb.com, Finsoport and Estudio Bein & Asociados.

Economia & Regiones SA, based in Buenos Aires, said March 16 it will stop releasing its monthly price index because of “unjust persecution.”

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

export tax > income tax?

[from MercoPress, 27 June 2011]

Argentina’s soy bean crop will represent 8bn USD in levies for the Treasury

Soy export taxes for the 2010/2011 crop will represent 8 billion US dollars for the Argentine Treasury compared to 6.3bn in the previous season, according to estimates from the country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.


“Revenue from export duties for the 2010/2011 harvest will be in the range of 8.041 billion USD”, said the ministry in its portal.

This year’s soy crop is estimated to be between 49.6 and 50.4 million tons, which is significantly less that the record 55 million tons of the 2009/2010 season.

Based on international prices the ministry estimated the value of the crop to be in the range of 25 billion US dollars.

In 2010, soy revenue totalled 6.3 billion US dollars, a main source of resources for the Treasury.

“The difference is based on the fact that the oilseed price in Chicago, which acts as a world reference for global trading soared 60% compared to a year ago”, added the official portal.

The harvest is estimated to have covered 95% of the area planted, 18.7 million hectares. The provinces of Buenos Aires and Cordoba are the main soy areas of Argentina.

The Ministry of Agriculture estimates Argentina will export this year 5.587 billion US dollars of soy beans, 10.6 billion of soy flour and 8.45bn of soy oil.

The harvesting of soy beans has partially delayed corn collecting but has already reached 80% of the 4.3 million hectares planted.

Argentina is the world’s second exporter of corn and according to official estimates total production should reach 20.9 million tons.

Argentina’s global crop for the 2010/11 agriculture year which includes oilseeds and other grains should total 100.64 million tons. The figure was first released last March.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soy-oil, third of soy beans, second of corn and fourth of wheat.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Gary on bitcoin

Another Take on Bitcoins
By Gary Kinghorn (owner, N-27)


I just read Doug and Louis’ weekly Conversations with Casey on Bitcoins. I had a very similar take initially, but I think Bitcoins are much more interesting than they are giving them credit for. I’ve actually spent a good amount of time understanding how this system is different than other alternative currency systems, and why it could have some merit at some point in the future, even if there are a number of “implementation details” to work out on the way to viability.

The first common misperception about Bitcoins is that they are backed by nothing, and hence that Goldmoney (also digital money, but backed by gold) must be superior. Or that Bitcoin is another form of fiat currency. This is a flawed argument if you flip it around and compare Bitcoins, not to Goldmoney, but to gold itself.

The value of gold is largely a reflection of the amount of work that is consumed in mining and refining it, along with its ideal suitability as “money”. A gold coin represents a large amount of land, highly refined, with the input of a great deal of energy, labor and capital. Similarly, Bitcoins are representative of the computing power, energy, and capital required to create them. A fast, expensive computer has to run for many days to create a Bitcoin. Just like most mining operations, it is a very difficult proposition to do profitably.

In fact, the creation of a Bitcoin is called “mining”*. There’s even a burgeoning industry of “mining consultants”, although the Bitcoin analogy of a Doug Casey has clearly not emerged yet. Bitcoin mining is risky, it’s somewhat random, and it’s very competitive between the number of people that are trying to mine at the same time. It’s probably never been a profitable venture, unless you assume greater prices in the future. So, in fact, the recent price rises that we’ve seen were not so much due to “greater fools” pursuing an unbacked currency, but a reflection of the more competitive nature of creating Bitcoins, the corresponding increases in computer cycles required to generate them, and the approximate costs of that computing power increasing. Naturally, the speculators come in to play that increase, amidst the early hoarders cashing out, and with the small size of an early market, you’ve got a formula for volatility, no question.

But if Bitcoins are “backed by nothing”, well, nothing backs gold either. It’s just a mineral dug up out of the ground with no inherent use other than jewelry. The fact that gold is not someone else’s liability is its supposed strength, and you can say the same about Bitcoins. Gold’s value relative to other strong conductors limits its industrial use considerably. The fact that gold looks better than a Bitcoin, and can also be used as adornment is an advantage that’s hard to argue; but it’s also true that its value as jewelry comes from its value as a rarity and its perceived value based on its ideal inherent properties as money. One could argue Bitcoins have all these same properties in terms of rarity, divisibility, convenience (OK, these are the implementation details that need to be worked out, but should be with time), and durability. When it comes to transporting wealth, say from the US to Argentina, would you rather try to carry $500,000 in gold past the TSA, or $500,000 in Bitcoins? So, maybe, in fact, they
are more portable than gold, certainly one aspect of their convenience. With a well-protected wallet (encrypted with a long password), they are 100% theft-proof.

As we all know, bad money drives out good money. In other words, Federal Reserve Notes are bad money, getting more and more worthless, and hence these are the first things to be used as currency (legal tender laws aside). The stuff that’s appreciating in value, like gold and silver is driven into hiding and hoarded by investors. They are not used as “currency”, at least today. But the real measure of Bitcoin value to society will not be determined today, but in the future when the fiat currencies have served their purpose and humanity is scrambling to find a replacement. How would Bitcoins have fared in the currency collapse in Argentina when local scrip was put into circulation and quickly forged? How would Bitcoins have helped in Zimbabwe last decade when people were digging in their backyard for gold dust to buy bread to survive? Today’s Bitcoins may have not solved the problems of these countries completely, but one can envision a future where even most third world citizens have a cell phone to carry a Bitcoin wallet, and every family has a home computer to mine a few hundredths of a Bitcoin per day.

In our dystopian future, very few people are going to have gold, or even silver to conduct many meaningful transactions. Bitcoins may well be the only currency at that point for the common man (the non-Casey subscribers), aside from the family silverware, neighborhood scrip and other local currencies with far deeper flaws than Bitcoins.

One of the main advantages to Bitcoins is that it is completely peer-to-peer. In a computer sense, this means that there is no “issuing authority”, no central repository, no managing group, etc. With amazing foresight, even the inventor has remained completely anonymous, adding something to the mystery and attraction of Bitcoins. There is no liberty dollar creator to arrest on trumped up tax charges, there’s no stockpile to confiscate, there’s no repository to raid. When compared to Goldmoney, who’s to say James Turk can’t be “taken out”, his vaults confiscated, or his database of users and transactions compromised. When compared to gold itself, there is no way the govt. could confiscate Bitcoins under any scenario, as long as there is electronic communication between users. If fiat currencies collapse, it’s very likely gold and silver could be completely taken out of the equation, but not Bitcoins. The volatility that gold and silver are going to go through are going to whipsaw most casual Americans through an emotional wringer on a day to day basis, for the ones that can get their hands on the precious metals. Just look at January 1980 for a preview. This may well be the case with Bitcoins, as we have already seen, but that is NOT to say gold and silver are always a “consistent store of value” by comparison.

Finally, the casual observer of Bitcoins is overlooking a real opportunity in my opinion. Let’s compare Bitcoins to facebook. Bitcoins have quickly garnered an almost religious-like cult following among its early adopters. Rather than dismiss this as an aberration, perhaps we should pause and better understand why. These are not just naïve videogamers and crypto-hackers. The adoption rate of Bitcoins could at some point in the future compare with the community of facebook users. Who wouldn’t have loved to have gotten in on the facebook craze back in the early Harvard days, by either being one of the early programmers, or being one of the first to benefit from the early market penetration and advertising models that were created.

Already the earliest Bitcoin miners (when there was comparatively little competition) are online millionaires, and are starting to cash out. If Bitcoin really becomes practical and widely used, even just for online purchases, the opportunities to add value with a simple service are going to be legion. The price of Bitcoins is going to go up by orders of magnitude, and the early adopters are going to (continue to) receive a windfall. Like any gold rush, there will be lots of losers, but there is also plenty of opportunity. The security flaw exposed in the largest exchange last weekend shows the need for a number of more stable, secure exchanges as the community grows. The lack of merchant terminals at your average Starbucks creates an opportunity for a simple payment app on a cell phone and a corresponding terminal at the merchant site. The lack of convertibility into physical dollars, or other currencies, in many locations is a clear opportunity to provide a valuable service. There is plenty of room for people who wish to provide capital, and a great opportunity for speculators as well. Think of investing in Bitcoin today as akin to investing in an early stage start-up in Silicon Valley, or a speculative mining venture. You still can’t rule out a four bagger.

Believe me, I know enough about Bitcoin to know all the downside risk, the limited viability, the potential for fraud, and the wild-west nature of this emerging technology. It may very well not survive at all. I know many of my arguments are hand-waving, but I’m playing the devil’s advocate, not because I have all the answers, but because I know nobody has the answers to rule out the future viability of this system. Would I invest much in it today? I doubt it, and I would only do it because I’m fully versed in as many issues as I can be. How would I invest if I did? Mining? Probably not. Speculation? Only in small amounts. Bitcoin-related services and products? Well, maybe, but I am a technologist and I can see a potential path to getting tech products off the ground. Are the risks great? Yes. But to dismiss Bitcoins as a “straw in the wind” is to be making a serious mistake in my opinion.

Truth be told, only last week I made my first small investment in Bitcoins after testing the viability of mining them for a couple of weeks. Unfortunately, I got some of my funds locked up in the now famous Mt.Gox security breach temporarily, but I expect all the funds to be recovered in short order, and it was a small test amount anyway. I am not deterred by this setback, and I don’t think the Bitcoin community will be for long. Other exchanges are operating normally and prices quickly returned. Mt. Gox is rolling back many of the trades in the unusual sell-off so the fraudulent “flash crash” will be undone. It’s just part of the learning process, and the growing pains in something as fundamentally important as a new currency.

[*Since somebody is bound to ask: What exactly do you mean “mining” a Bitcoin on a computer? Very simply, bitcoins are computer files that are cryptographic key blocks (a.k.a. a hash) that are assembled out of blocks of very large numbers. Putting together a hash block is not unlike a brute force cracking of a password. In mining, you have to try millions and millions of number blocks until you “find” the right one. The bitcoin network limits the amount of coins that can be minted to asymptotically approach 21,000,000 by the year 2030. Transactions may be common with 1/1000 or 1/10,000 of a coin as deflation seems built in by design. As computers get faster, and more people start mining, the blocks that are required to create a coin will correspondingly get longer and more difficult so that the mining rate is never exceeded. A good geologist in gold mining has a big advantage over a poor geologist, but in bitcoin everyone is equally looking in the dark so to speak, and it’s a bit more random, but you also don’t have the unpredictability of mining accidents, geopolitical instability or dependence on the price of oil. Want to try mining quickly on your own? Go to http://www.bitcoinplus.com and click on “Generate Bitcoin”, then “Start Generating” to start.

Earlier in my career as a network security guy, I worked at RSA, which designed and produced many of the foundational cryptographic algorithms used in these kinds of applications, which was what initially attracted me to study bitcoin, along with my interest in alternative currency systems, of course. Upon cursory research, the design is incredibly elegant and well thought out. From an engineering perspective alone, bitcoin is something like looking at the Hoover Dam for an industrial engineer. It’s a testimony to somebody’s great design and the belief in that design of a large and growing community of talented programmers in the open source community, and throughout the world.]

Friday, June 17, 2011

wire transfers


When you wire transfer US dollars from a US bank to an Argentine bank, the Argentina bank charges 3.5% for the wire transfer.

Thus, if you wire US$100 to a vendor in Argentina, the vendor receives the peso equivalent of US$96.50.

Monday, April 18, 2011

cartoneros

[from Buenos Aires Perception, 26 October 2009]


A cartonero (cardboard picker) is someone who digs through the trash to collect anything that may be of value. Basically, they are sorting through the garbage set out at the curb, mostly in search for cardboard and other useful remains. The cartoneros work within certain territories in the various neighborhoods of Buenos Aires. Sadly, there are thousands of them out on the streets, many are children. The number of cartoneros has rapidly increased during the last economic crash in 2001. For many people in Argentina, that is the only way to make a living.

income distribution

[from MercoPress, 18 April 2011]

An estimated 40% of Argentine live on less than US$8 per day

An estimated 16 million Argentines, (out of a population of 40 million) live on less than 800 pesos per month which is equivalent to 8 US dollars per day, according to the latest data from the official Homes Standing Poll.

Palermo neighborhood in Buenos Aires, home to the wealthy

30% of richest homes concentrate over 50% of Argentina’s national income

The release from the last quarter of 2010 also shows that in the low income homes live more people and there’s less money to go around. This means that in the 30% of the poorest homes in Argentina lives 40% of the population and receives 14.2% of the national income. At the other end 30% of the richest homes only represent 21% of the population but concentrate over 50% of the national cake.

Therefore regarding basic food prices (which determine the levels of poverty and indigence), the 10% richest can spend twenty times more than the poorest 10% of the country.

Argentina according to INDEC, the controversial statistics and census office, only has 10% of the Argentine population ranked as poor. However private estimates based on basic food prices and other alternative calculi, overall poverty is closer to 25% and in some cases reaches 30%.

For example for INDEC an Argentine family (a couple and two children) is not considered poor if they have monthly earnings above 1.283 Pesos (approx 320 US dollars). Private consultants based on current inflation and food prices argue the floor is over 2.200 Pesos (500 USD).

Official data shows that in recent years the poorest Argentine families have seen their incomes increase based on higher family allowances per child, old age pensions and other forms of social assistance (non contribution pensions, mainly for housewives), but even with this support the poverty map “has not increased proportionately since food prices have a greater influence on low income families”.

Furthermore according to private consultants and organized labour estimates, Argentine inflation is running at an annual rate of 25% to 30% while most social security payments adjust every six or twelve months.

Precisely in coming weeks the Argentine government is expected to adjust the family allowance per child (currently al the equivalent of 110 USD) as well as increase the top benchmark to have access to the allowance (currently at 1.200 USD income per family). The same with the unemployment benefit which is equivalent to 100 USD per month.

The poverty statistics follow on eight years of sustained growth of the Argentine economy at what are described as ‘Chinese rates’.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

carrying gold across borders

[a note from Roger to David Galland, Casey Research, 14 October, 2009]

Transporting Gold Across The Border To Canada

Last week I flew from Houston, Texas, to Calgary, Alberta, and I had 20 Krugerrands in my carry-on bag.


I have had “run-ins” with U.S. customs agents before and I didn’t want to repeat the experience. With this in mind, I called the customs office at the airport beforehand and told the agent that I would be carrying gold coins and asked him how to value them to conform to the ten thousand-dollar rule. He had no idea what I was talking about and told me to check with the airline when I got to the airport and they could help me.

Knowing that this was inaccurate but willing to play along, I presented my valuation question for declaring the coins to the airline check-in person. She, of course, had no idea what I was talking about and told me that nothing needed to be declared on the way out, but only on my arrival in Canada.

I next asked my question of the security person at the head of the security line. She at least had heard of the ten thousand-dollar rule but had no idea about valuation of gold. She told me to check with the security guy at the scanner. At this point, I’d had it. I just threw my bag on the scanner and picked it up on the other end and walked on the plane with no problem.

The situation went downhill at Canadian customs. I was still trying to do the right thing and asked the agent if I needed to declare. He had no idea and called his superior, who had no idea. I was then sent to the secondary agent to be checked. I told her I was just trying to determine if I needed to declare the coins dependent on value. She left for about five minutes to talk to a supervisor. She came back and asked me what they were worth. Trying to be honest, I told her it varied from day to day, but that they could probably bring between $900 to $1,000 each. She left again for five or ten minutes to check with her supervisor.

When she came back this time, she told me that they had decided that the coins must be rare collector items being brought into the country for resale. As such, they would not be classified as monetary instruments but as commercial merchandise, and they would need to collect GST on them. I did a quick calculation in my head and realized that they were getting ready to ask me for a thousand bucks to walk through customs with the coins.

I had also planned ahead for this problem and told her that I had called their central office before the trip and had been assured that no tax would be due on entry. She asked me if I had a name and number that I had called, which I provided to her. She still thought that they were collector items, so I just spilled several of them out on the desk to show that they were not protected in any way as I shuffled them together. She admitted that she had never seen a gold coin before.

She asked again about value, and I brought out another piece of paper that I carry with me. It is a downloaded page from the U.S. Treasury website that shows that the Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury value gold for inventory purposes at $42.22 per ounce. She thought this over for a minute and asked if I had any idea what they weighed. I told her that they each contained exactly one ounce of pure gold. She took this information and my downloaded page back in the back to her supervisor.

After another five or ten minutes, she came back and said that because they were worth $42.22 each and I only had 20 of them, I was well under the ten thousand-dollar declaration and I was free to go. She didn’t have to tell me twice.

This really is a “Damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation. Both countries have the ten thousand-dollar rule and threaten you in writing with confiscation if you don’t declare. Yet when you try to do the right thing and ask the people on the ground what they want you to do, they are clueless. The temptation is great to just walk through without a word. This would work most of the time, of course, but I really don’t want to leave a couple of tubes of Krugerrands at the airport.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Kirchner protects the workers

[from Rodrigo Orihuela & Eduarto Thomson @ Bloomberg, 13 April 2011]

Argentina Government Boosts Control Over Boards of Petrobras, BBVA Units

Argentina’s government will exercise more voting power on the boards of 42 of the country’s biggest companies, including the local units of Petroleo Brasileiro SA and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA.

Argentina’s benchmark stock index fell for a third straight day after the government announced it will increase its control over the boards of some of the country’s biggest companies, including local units of Petroleo Brasileiro SA and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA. (BBVA)

The Merval index fell 0.6 percent to 3,382.55 at 11:11 a.m. New York time. Developing market stocks were higher, with the MSCI Emerging Markets index rising 0.7 percent.

The government, through investments held by the state pensions agency Anses, wants to “defend its holdings on the same terms as all other investors,” according to a presidential decree published in the official gazette today.

“The market didn’t like the news,” Guillermo Maresco, a trader at the brokerage unit of Banco de la Nacion Argentina, said in a telephone interview today from Buenos Aires. “The stocks that are falling the most are those in which the government has a higher stake, such as Banco Macro.”

Previously, Anses was allowed a maximum of 5 percent of voting rights in companies even if it owned a greater amount of shares. Anses took ownership of the shares after President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner nationalized the $24 billion private pensions system in 2008.

Banco Macro SA (BMA), in which Anses owns 31 percent, led losses among members of the Merval index, falling 1.5 percent to 16.95 pesos, its fifth day of losses, and the longest losing streak in almost four months. Power line operator Transener SA, in which the government has 19 percent, lost 1.4 percent.

Protecting Workers

The increase in voting rights “allows us to better protect the interests of the workers and pensioners’ funds that the government manages,” Economy Minister Amado Boudou told reporters last night.

Anses has a stake in all 18 members of the Merval. Its holdings include an 11.8 percent stake in oil and gas producer Petrobras Energia SA, the local unit of Brazil’s largest energy company, and 7.5 percent of BBVA Banco Frances SA, a unit of Spain’s BBVA.

The agency also holds a 26 percent stake in Siderar SAIC (ERAR), the country’s largest steelmaker, 22.5 percent in Pampa Energia SA (PAMP), the biggest energy holding company, and 20 percent in Molinos Rios de la Plata SA, the biggest food producer, according to a statement on the agency’s website. It owns 9.3 percent of the shares of Aluar Aluminio Argentino SAIC (ALUA), Argentina’s sole aluminum producer.

Friday, April 8, 2011

the economic role of the state

[from Vito Tanzi's Argentina: An Economic Chronicle: How One of the Richest Countries in the World Lost Its Wealth, Jorge Pinto, 2007]

A different and longer-lasting problem was created by the welfare state policies established in the 1946-1955 period. These policies promoted and legislated an economic role of the state, that is an implicit set of promises to the citizens that required large public spending and, therefore, large public revenue to contain fiscal deficits and avoid fiscal difficulties. After World War II, the financing of public spending had been facilitated by the reserves accumulated during the war and by large rents from the export of commodities (although these rents had not been sufficient to finance all the spending). Future governments would not have those rents and would find themselves with a welfare state that the country could no longer afford. When this happens, and countries are unable to politically change the legislated role of the state, they generally try to cut spending administratively or they look for non-permanent and non-ordinary means of financing, including borrowing and the printing of money. This creates situations where public spending tends to continually exceed ordinary public revenue. Fiscal deficits become the norm and the quality of public services deteriorates creating constant pressures for more spending. In these situations, a country is left with an inefficient and under-financed welfare state and with continuous macroeconomic difficulties. This happened to Argentina with a vengeance and characterized the half century after the first government of Perón. It is a lesson that should be learned by countries now undergoing large yearly fiscal deficits . . .

&

how to solve a fiscal deficit

Around 1985, Argentina had a program of financial assistance with the IMF. As was normal in those programs, the loans came with conditions attached to them. One of these conditions was that the size of the fiscal deficit should not exceed a given level. At that time, Argentina had great difficulties in meeting this fiscal ceiling, but without meeting it, it would not be able to continue receiving money from the Fund. Unable or unwilling to cut spending, the economic team was desperately in search of additional revenue. At that time, as the result of the famous real estate bubble in Japan, the price of real estate in Tokyo had gone through the roof. The value of the land in Tokyo was estimated to be higher than the value of all the land in the United States. This situation suggested a magical or practical, though unusual, solution to the fiscal difficulty of Argentina. Argentina could sell its embassy in Tokyo and use the proceeds from the sale to cover the fiscal gap. Argentina would then rent back the embassy from the new owner. In the Argentina team, there was an economist . . . Jorge Sakamoto, an Argentine of Japanese descent now living in Washington. He was the ideal person to negotiate the sale, so he was sent to Tokyo to conclude the deal. The sale went through and Argentina got revenue close to 0.5 percent of the Argentina GDP at that time. This revenue would help to fill the fiscal gap and keep the IMF happy and the money flowing in. . . .

The sale of the embassy in Tokyo happened at about the same time when Mobutu, the then Congolese dictator, in order to comply with the fiscal requirements of a financial program with the Fund, which also required that the fiscal deficit be kept below a certain leve, had the brilliant idea of selling his personal plane. He used the money to raise the country's revenue and then leased the plane right back.

Trace Mayer writes about The Great Life Hedge

[from Trace Mayer @ RunToGold, 8 April 2011]

La Estancia De Cafayate The Great Life Hedge In Salta Argentina

La Estancia De Cafayate is a unique life hedge, even a modern day Galt’s Gulch, located in Salta, Argentina. This is the dream project of ‘The International Man’ Doug Casey who partnered with Former Salta Governor and current Argentine Senator Juan Carlos Romero. If you are considering a life hedge, given the quality of people this development is attracting, the uncertainty in the world and the potential for significant major disruptions to daily life then I think this special phyle deserves consideration.

WHAT IS A LIFE HEDGE?

In Chapter 6 of The Great Credit Contraction I discuss the importance of the Five Flag Theory and a life hedge is an essential component of this concept. A life hedge is a backup location where you can relocate yourself to maintain the lifestyle you have designed. Implementing provident living principles requires one to put in place a contingency plan for their personal location.

When one is unprepared for and affected by those events which are possible, although not probable, then one’s lifestyle gets designed for them and in many cases they do not like it. Just ask the cold, starving masses in Japan, Haiti, Chile, Thailand, etc. who failed to adequately hedge against natural disasters. A life hedge is a form of insurance for yourself and your family against the flock of black swans. While charity is nice I guarantee you that no one cares more about whether you are fed and comfortable than you do. With the current system unraveling it is important to prepare for survivalism in the suburbs as the veneer of order is extremely thin.

For example, if you had to take the last plane out of your city then (1) where would you go and (2) how would you maintain your standard of living?

. . . click here to read the rest of this article & to watch Trace's interview with Doug Casey, Juan Carlos Romero, & Juan Esteban Romero

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (MILA)

[from MercoPress, 6 April 2011]

Chile, Colombia, Peru launch integrate stock markets beginning May 30

Operations of a joint stock market linking Chile, Colombia and Peru are scheduled to begin May 30. The group, known as the Integrated Latin American Market, or Mila, said Tuesday that the decision was taken following two rounds of successful testing.

Mila will list 560 companies and becomes the second largest of the region by capitalization

On April 15, the companies that will trade on the joint exchange will start to list, Mila was quoted on Dow Jones Newswires.

Last year, Chile, Colombia and Peru said they would merge their stock markets to form one cross-trading platform. The integration was expected to be finished by the end of 2010, but it was postponed.

Officials announced earlier that the new platform will list some 560 companies, combining the listings from each individual country, making it the largest Latin American exchange by number of companies listed and second-largest by market capitalization.

Meanwhile Latin American stocks rose to their highest since June 2008 on Tuesday, but profit-taking in Mexico and signs Chile's rally may be running out of steam could limit gains in the coming sessions.

Investors bet a move on Tuesday by China to tighten borrowing costs would help manage to tame strong growth without undermining high prices for Latin America's key commodities.

“China will keep growing, just at a slower pace,” said Gerardo Copca, a strategist at consultancy Metanalisis.

China is Brazil's top trading partner and also one of Chile's top customers for its copper.

Chilean stocks led gains in major regional markets, with the IPSA index .IPSA rising 0.56 percent to close at its highest since late January as industrial conglomerate Copec CPO.SN rose 1.99 percent.

Surprisingly strong growth data in Chile backed bets that the country's stocks could see solid profit growth during the first quarter.

Friday, April 1, 2011

interview with LEC owner Steve Abramowicz

[from International Man: The Private Global Intelligence Network, "Interview with an International Man Wealth Advisor," 30 March 2011]

Editor's Note: At its core, International Man is designed to be a community of like-minded people who come together and converse on all topics related to the internationalization process. One member is Steve Abramowicz, a Seattle-based wealth advisor to high net worth individuals across the United States. He has also internationalized himself and his family to a great degree.

A few weeks ago, he generously offered to share some insights into what he does for his clients and his own particular internationalization strategies, which is presented for you below. Let's jump in...


Xavier Calendar: How would you summarize what you do for a living?

Steve Abramowicz: I am a wealth advisor for the US division of the world's largest wealth management firm. I routinely diversify assets, estate plan, and quarterback planning between trustees, CPAs, attorneys and boards. I also tailor make goal oriented financial plans for high net worth individuals and trusts that want asset protection, legacy planning and, of course, growth. The growth is the back of the cocktail napkin stuff that I enjoy, but the real passion for me comes from the problem solving and relationships built from the generational planning and dynasty building.

XC: How did you get into this particular business?

SA: I just turned 40 and have been doing this for almost 20 years. It's all I've ever known.

My family was in real estate in the 60s and early 70s in Napa, California. I figured I'd go into the family business but after I graduated college, I got some advice that said, "If you do what you love for a living, you never work a day in your life." A friend of mine has suggested I look at Wall Street as they were hiring - it was 1994 and they had had a good rally over the previous 2 years.

I tried it, really liked it and have been doing it ever since.

XC: If a potential client who met your requirements walked through your door today, how would you get started with him?

SA: I'm very goal oriented, so the first thing is to sit down and discuss some of the non-financial aspects of a person's life - their family situation - kids, elderly parents, siblings that they might have to share a large estate with. We discuss their charitable ambitions and how they want to divide their money when they die. Some people want to set up a charity or foundation to create a legacy - like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

One of the most important things is to find out what they want to do with their money over their lifetimes. Almost everyone who has 10 million dollars wants $25M, people who have $100,000 would love to get to a million and so on. That's all fine and good, but it's more important what they want to do with that liquidity.

Do they want to be Jesse Livermore and sit on their cash like Scrooge McDuck or do they want to use some estate planning tools that can make sure their money does some good? Do they have a child with special needs or kids who aren't doing so well and need some help? Perhaps they have grandchildren they want to leave something for.

Once I get a handle on all that, then I can help them create a plan of action to help them reach their goals. That means sitting down with my Golden Rolodex and finding the right resources - it could be a domestic or international estate attorney, insurance agent, or just the right accountant. I then quarterback the process.

Sometimes it's as simple as someone just wanting to grow their money. I can do that. I do it every day. But if it's more sophisticated and they want, say, creditor protection, leverage, wealth or dynasty planning, we can do that too - both domestically and internationally.

XC: How many clients do you currently work with internationally versus domestically?

SA: It seems everybody that comes in nowadays is either in the process of internationalization or at least thinking carefully about it. People see that something is wrong in the US and they want to protect themselves. They know it's something they should do.

I'd say in the next few years, 90% of my clients will be fully internationalized. Currently about 5% would fall into this category. But it's growing fast.

That's where UBS, the bank I work for, is so important. Every financial service one could need is there. It's a complete menu. There are other qualified options out there of course, but I like UBS because it offers so much in one package - from international stocks to gold storage in Zurich to your basic everyday chequing account.

XC: Speaking of UBS, when the bank had to give out all the American account names and numbers, how did that affect your business if at all?

SA: It didn't affect it at all. The question you just asked was the headline from the media, not the reality. In reality, we were required to give up just over 50,000 names of our 450,000 American clients. So about 11%. Of that, UBS actually only handed over 4,000 names.

The bottom line is so long as you always do your reporting, this is not an issue. Over the centuries, Switzerland and the Bahamas and the Cayman Islands and a lot of other places have become places to hide your money. If you're a Middle Eastern dictator and you want to hide the billions you're stealing from your people, it can be done in the world. But it's a lot harder than it used to be because those places that haven't complied with modern reporting requirements have been squeezed.

So if you're a US citizen and you want to internationalize your assets, you have to do it right. If you cheat, you're probably going to get caught and it'll be expensive. You might even go to jail.

If you want to play by the rules and internationalize your finances the right way, you need to learn how to do it right or find someone like me who will ensure you do everything properly.

Everything comes down to form 1099. If you buy gold in Switzerland and then sell it and take a profit, you need to report it because the bank will be reporting it to the IRS as well. If you buy international assets in foreign currency and you take profits, it's going to be recorded. So ensure you report everything because those records could come back to get you if you don't follow the rules.

The good news is, UBS actually does the tax reporting for you. Other banks will too [another Swiss bank that offers the service is Credit Suisse], but most will not - they don't want the responsibility to keep track of all that. In fact, most offshore banks won't even have Americans as customers for this reason - they don't want the extra paperwork.

It used to be that you could walk around the streets of Geneva or Zurich with a passport and just open a chequing account. Americans can still do that in Canada, New Zealand and Australia but not in Switzerland. There are ways around that but generally, they don't want American clients for the reporting requirements.

XC: What kind of person is able to take full advantage of wealth advisors like you?

SA: $500K to $1Million dollar liquid net worth is ideal. For the first time, for this year and next, the tax exemption is $5M per person or $10M per couple, so it raises the bar on exactly what sort of client needs this sort of service.

I should mention that there are no up-front fees to use my services. But the implementation through lawyers, accountants and other professionals is what will cost some money.

XC: How have you internationalized yourself from an investment point of view?

SA: I was in New Zealand and so opened up a bank account and wired funds in, held in my name in New Zealand dollars. I put those into short term deposits because they have better interest rates than US rates and I roll them over as needed. But I keep it flexible enough to move them around as needed. That was the first step.

Because I live so close to Canada, the next thing I did was drive up across the border, walk into a Royal Bank of Canada branch and set up an account in Canadian funds. Every once in a while, I write a cheque with the account number on it and drop it in the mail to the bank.

Some time later, I discovered a Belize bank called Caye International. I was able to buy foreign currency through them and so I chose Swiss Francs. Apparently, even though the company is based in the Caribbean, their backoffice banking is in Zurich, so I didn't incur any currency conversion costs - it was already in Swiss francs.

I've also purchased some Perth Mint certificates, which is an easy way to benefit from the precious metals book while having the certificates guaranteed by the Australian government.

I buy and store gold with Border Gold just over the border in Surrey [BC, Canada]. I'm also thinking of buying a storage container up there, but I haven't done it yet.

I've also purchased a large piece of property in Argentina that I intend to build on, owned by an international corporation and held by an international trust to insulate that property as well as to protect it from creditors. That was a big deal.

Oh... and I also tried to buy a Bed & Breakfast in New Zealand, but the deal fell through. I really like the potential future of New Zealand and am still looking.

And all together, the trust owns everything.

XC: So you set up the trust and made yourself a beneficiary?

SA: I'm actually not the beneficiary, my kids are. If you make yourself a beneficiary, the IRS can say that what you did wasn't truly a gift and it comes back into the estate. If you make your kids a beneficiary, it's harder for them to make that claim.

XC: Do you invest your Canadian dollars in term deposits?

SA: No, there's no point as interest rates are nothing. The Canadian dollar is basically just a play on oil and as oil is rising, so too is the Canadian dollar. The Swiss franc is a straight currency play as well. The New Zealand dollars are there because they offer a decent interest rate.

XC: Taking out the complexities of an international trust, how difficult is it for someone to follow the path you've laid out?

SA: It's actually very easy. The trust is there for asset protection and there's a case to be made for that. If you rear-end someone and they come after the assets you've spent time building up, do you want them to get it? The trust protects you from that eventuality.

However, getting the basics set up is a relatively straight forward thing.

It's easier than ever to diversify out of the US dollar. Some people are scared that capital controls will be brought in and that freedom will be taken away. It's possible and that's why it's important to act now.

XC: Do you plan on staying in Seattle or expatriating at some point?

SA: I've got the Cafayate [Argentina] property as a home away from home but am also looking at a third property in New Zealand. But I don't know. I'm not sure what would have to happen to push me out the door and relocate my family permanently. My main priority right now is to give myself the freedom to make that choice should the time come.

XC: If you were just getting started and looking to establish a financial flag outside your country, where would you start?

SA: The first step is to go to some place you like and open a bank account. I liked New Zealand, so I went there.

Second step: Diversify that by purchasing different currencies either through the bank account you just set up or through other bank accounts in other places. Ideally, the more banks you have, the better.

Third: Buy some gold either through a company like Border Gold or other reputable dealer. This will be your hedge against inflation.

Fourth: Purchase a few Perth Mint certificates through a certified dealer. It's about as safe as a CD but allows you to play on the rising market in precious metals.

XC: Well, that completes our interview. Thank you Steve for sharing your experience with us today.

SA: You're welcome.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Brazil's new tax

[from MercoPress, 29 March 2011]

Brazil plans to tax local corporations overseas bond issues, says financial media

The Brazilian government is planning to impose a financial operations tax on overseas bond issues by Brazilian companies, local financial daily Valor Economico reported Monday.

The tax is part of a government drive to reduce U.S. dollar inflows and arrest the appreciation of the Brazilian Real against the U.S. dollar. The Real has gained 45% against the dollar over the past two years, hurting exports.

According to the newspaper, which cited an unnamed person close to the government, officials are also concerned about a recent increase in dollar-denominated debt among Brazilian companies. The government is planning to impose a financial operations tax of 6% on such operations.

In the first two months of the year, local companies increased overseas debt by 16.4 billion US dollars to 190.3 billion USD, according to the central bank.

In 2008, some local companies suffered huge financial losses when dollar-denominated debt ballooned because of a rapid depreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar. The Real depreciated strongly against the dollar from 2008 to 2009 because of the global financial crisis. In 2009, the Real began a swift recovery.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

interview with Dionisio Borda, Paraguay's minister of finance

[from Silvia Pavoni @ The Banker: Global Financial Intelligence since 1926, 20 August 2010]

Paraguay banks on natural resources

The government of Paraguay has faced many challenges when striving to implement democratic reform and social policies while maintaining economic stability and promoting growth. The country's minister of finance, Dionisio Borda, outlines the government's efforts to make the most of its natural resources, attract private investment and build up Paraguay's infrastructure.

Q: In what areas does Paraguay have opportunities for growth?

A: Paraguay has several very important competitive advantages. The country is a food producer, involving agriculture and cattle-raising. We're also a clean energy producer; we're the largest energy exporter in the region. We consume only about 6% of the output of Itaipú [a hydroelectric plant on the border between Paraguay and Brazil] and we're now in discussion with a foreign company [Rio Tinto Alcan of Canada] over the installation of an aluminium plant, which is very energy-intensive. The [aluminium] project is being studied by an economic team within the government, formed by the finance minister, the central bank governor and the industry, agriculture and public works ministries. It is a signal of the level of interest in the country.

The third advantage that Paraguay has is its low population density: 11 inhabitants per square kilometre - this is a density you don't see very often.

The country has another very important natural resource: water. The Guarani aquifer [one of the world's largest sources of fresh water that lies beneath the surface of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay], which is underground and suitable for human consumption, has hardly been developed at all and has huge strategic value.

Paraguay is also defined by its rivers. If you look at a map of Paraguay, you'll see how the rivers look like the veins of a body. A friend of mine, who is a hydrologist, went into that profession because, when he was a child, he opened the encyclopaedia and looked at what it said about Paraguay. Against the many pages of information about other countries, what it said about our country was this: 'it is a country permeated by rivers; it is the country of water'.

This is a country of great inequality but of great [social] integration. We don't have direct access to the sea, but this is one of the challenges that this government has undertaken: the development of infrastructure and logistics.

Another advantage for Paraguay is being part of Mercosur [a regional trade agreement between Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay]. Paraguay has taken advantage of its membership, although it has its negative sides too. But in the medium to long term, membership of Mercosur offers many advantages and that's one of the reasons why Rio Tinto Alcan wants to put its plant here: low-cost energy and access to the markets of Brazil and Argentina.

Q: Paraguay has a very low tax/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. If this increases, it might create more funds for infrastructure and education. What are the government's plans?

A: Yes, we have very few fiscal pressures. Our value-added tax (VAT) is the lowest in South America: 10% against 21% in Argentina, 23% in Uruguay, 19% in Brazil and 18% in Chile. Our corporate profit tax is 10%, while in the region the average is about 30%. We have yet to introduce a personal income tax; we have been trying to do so since 2003, but there is resistance.

Since 2003, though, we have had an expansion of the [corporate] taxpayer base from 100,000 to 500,000 today. We reduced the tax rate and this became an incentive for people in the 'informal' sector to join the formal sector. The tax/GDP ratio used to be 9%, then it went up to [the current] 12%, and we hope it will reach 15% [by 2013]. This would give us a better chance of funding our infrastructure and public works.

We keep on finding resistance from [Paraguay's] congress against the implementation of a personal income tax but we keep on fighting for it. It is going to be difficult to introduce it this year, but hopefully we can do so next year.

There are three objectives behind the introduction of a personal income tax: one is to increase the government's revenue. The second is to formalise the economy; people would be able to deduct VAT from their taxable personal income, so they'd have an incentive to ask for a receipt when they purchase items. The third objective is to fight illegal activities. Paraguay doesn't have a good reputation in this area, and the more we clarify how large someone's assets are, the more we can see where their income comes from. This should help resolve the issues of prestanombres [an individual who lends his or her name as owner of assets to circumvent regulations].

Also, we think that public-private partnerships (PPPs) will help develop the country's infrastructure. Right now, there is a legislative proposal to give the private sector a highway management concession. The roads concerned connect Asunción to Ciudad del Este and Encarnación in a triangle. This would be the country's most serious infrastructure plan to date through concessions to private investors.

We're also working on a PPP scheme for airports, which would be a first for Paraguay. There are already [smaller] private airports here and we need to work on a framework that would guarantee fair competition between all of them and guarantee that the government can comply with its obligations [in all of them].

Q: One of this government's promises was to enact stronger social policies but some say that the introduction of wider benefits has discouraged people from looking for jobs. What have been the results of the welfare strategy?

A: In reality, there isn't a true unemployment benefit scheme, but what the government did was to accelerate its conditional money transfer policy. This means that the government gives a small subsidy to people in extreme poverty [earning less than $1 per day]. Families in this situation receive about $50 per month on the condition that their children go to school and that the children go for medical check-ups once a month.

The government didn't have 100% control over the success of these measures but fundamentally I believe the impact has been positive. From 17,000 families in this programme in 2008, there were 103,000 families in 2009. This has complemented the [poor families'] income from remittances from their relatives in the US and Europe, which decreased last year.

We want sustainable growth that will generate employment and will not destroy the environment. We're working on some important environmental regulations in agribusiness.

We also want to promote private and public investment and attract foreign investors. Paraguay is a safe country in terms of security. It is an amicable country. It is welcoming towards foreigners. We have a law that gives incentives to foreign investors and says that they don't need to pay taxes until they start production - no VAT is charged on the installation of machinery and no tax is charged on capital imported. Glass companies, beverage companies and textiles companies from the wider Latin American region and from Europe have taken advantage of this.

Q: Do both Paraguay and its government have a perception problem?

A: Paraguay is not a country that does much promotion of itself abroad. We are a government with a social mission. We have a very high degree of poverty but there are no other restrictions. We work really well with businesses and their associations.

We are trying to eliminate the preconceptions about this government as populist because it has a social mission - this is not a populist government. This government wants to combine social policies with market policies for the sustainable growth of the country.

Companies that are present in Paraguay recognise that this government has improved the security situation. Social spending has increased, much of which has been directed towards the security of the country. Direct investment in security and education are also objectives. We also need to improve the institutions of the state - to ensure that the government, as an institution, works.

Q: The government has not played a significant role in developing Paraguay's infrastructure in the past, leaving the private sector to fill the gaps - building schools and roads that connect companies to highways, for example. Is there a risk that the private sector will increasingly become disaffected with the public sector?

A: In the past, during the dictatorship and early post-dictatorship period, public resources were not what they should have been. If the private sector is not provided with infrastructure or schools, it will try to create them itself, but this is not the correct approach. What we believe is that we should work in harmony with the private sector, that people should pay their taxes and that they should receive services from us. We are now working with the private sector on PPP programmes.

We have not had a very democratic government in Paraguay or a government committed to social issues. Being committed to social issues doesn't mean going to war with the private sector. We need to work with the private sector and deal with these issues. These are the conditions for [economic] growth. If you have social instability, none of the government's or private sector's efforts will produce any results: this is the history of central America. Countries where there was a lack of social policies had social instability in the end, and that hinders the development of the private sector too.

Q: You were finance minister for the first two years of the previous government, held by the right-of-centre Colorado party. How does this government differ from its predecessors?

A: There is more effort in this government. For 61 years, no government has handled this kind of public policy [focusing on social issues]. There is a learning curve, the bottom of which coincided with the international financial crisis. This made our efforts to meet our objectives much harder.

The international financial crisis and a terrible drought, combined with new people being brought into government and therefore lacking in public administration experience - all of this called for more communication and presentation [of our programmes and policies].

We solved some of the fiscal issues in the previous government term. First, we had to renegotiate the [public debt] maturity and the rate for internal debt; second, we implemented a partial reform of the fiscal base - we reduced corporation tax from 30% to 10% because in practice that was the actual rate that was being paid. We wanted to introduce a personal income tax.

We reformed the five cajas [savings banks] and the pension funds, so that their deficit would be reduced. We also created a 'second floor' bank, the Agencia Financiera de Desarrollo [financial development agency].

Q: You are known to be very strict with the budget. How do other ministries react when you do not accommodate their requests for additional funds?

A: It is not just one person's decision, it has to do with the availability of resources. At the beginning, it was difficult to establish a certain discipline; everybody wanted funds. Another part of the problem is efficiency. Initially, people thought that problems could be solved only with additional funding, but one also needs to develop the ability of doing things more efficiently. People understand this now.

Having a deficit gives a country inflation problems and affects its negotiating power for external loans. Since 2003, Paraguay has not had a deficit. Even during the crisis, in 2009, with a gross domestic product contraction of -3.8%, Paraguay increased the amount of tax collected. This is because there has been a big jump in the management of tax administration since 2003.

Q: What's the biggest challenge for the Ministry of Finance?

A: There is still much to be improved. We need to make all parts of the public administration more efficient; we need to invest more and to improve the service. Unfortunately, the political effort is not sufficient for the economic effort. If we have stronger political parties, they will make better public policies and better economic policy, and this means creating a better environment for growth and investment.

We need to work a lot with congress [to get our reforms approved]. It's a challenge. The political side of things needs to mature more. On the other hand, this society needs to create a stronger middle class, which would be the engine for growth. Our entrepreneurial class needs to look beyond Paraguay. Paraguay has a future in the export market. We need to learn from the emerging markets that have a good policy of investment distribution, such as Chile, Uruguay, Brazil and countries in Asia; [we must focus on] greater social justice, production geared for exports and investment in infrastructure.

The largest sector of employment in Paraguay is currently in family agricultural companies that have fewer than 50 employees. We need to generate employment and invite investments into Paraguay.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Argentina loses US court case

[from Brent Kendall @ Nasdaq, 22 February 2011]

US Supreme Court Rejects Argentina's Appeal Of Frozen Assets

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected Argentina's challenge to a ruling that froze some of its U.S. assets in order to satisfy court awards to hedge funds seeking to collect on the country's defaulted bonds.

The high court, without comment, said it would not hear Argentina's appeal. The justices let stand a decision by 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York, which last August affirmed the attachment of assets held in a New York account by the state-run commercial bank Banco de la Nacion Argentina.

Two funds that hold Argentina's defaulted bonds, Kenneth Dart's EM Ltd. fund and Elliott Management Corp's NML Capital Ltd., obtained attachment orders on the account in 2007. The funds said the account contains more than $70 million in assets.

The litigation stems from Argentina's 2001 default of billions of dollars in bonds. The funds said they have obtained more than $2.3 billion in judgments against Argentina in a New York federal court, which the country has refused to satisfy.

Argentina criticized the plaintiffs as "vulture funds" that bought the debt at discounted prices and then sought to impede the country's debt-restructuring efforts.

In 2005, the Argentine government offered about 33 cents on the dollar, and last year wrapped up a similar swap. Between the two swaps, investors have agreed to exchange about 91% of the defaulted bonds.

But investors that rejected the offers have consistently sought to seize Argentine assets in the U.S., Europe and Japan, thus preventing the country's return to overseas debt markets.

Argentina, in its brief to the U.S. Supreme Court, argued the New York appeals court followed the wrong legal rules when it allowed the funds to attach claims to the Argentine assets. The republic said the lower court should have applied the law of Argentina to the case, not the law of New York.

The case is Republic of Argentina v. Em Ltd, 10-572.

Friday, February 18, 2011

hanging out in Panama

What a trip to meet so many La Estancia folks in Panama at the Simon Black conference: Peter W, Charles V, John U, Jane & Kent R, Jim R, John & Margaret P, Deborah D, Reg & Tonye C., Carol C, Forrest B, plus Mike & I. Maybe a few more I don't know yet.

So far the conference has been good talks, good folks, good food. Hope we find answers to some of our questions.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

a new joint stock exchange

[from Andres Oppenheimer @ Miami Herald, 16 February 2011]

South American stock exchange: the way to go

The merger of the New York and Frankfurt stock exchanges to create the world’s biggest stock market made big headlines this week, but there is a lesser-known process in South America that should also draw our attention — the union of the Chilean, Peruvian and Colombian stock exchanges.

The stock exchanges of the three South American countries announced recently that they have finished the regulatory paperwork to start joint operations, and that they are preparing to do so within the next few months.

The three-country stock market, known as the Integrated Latin American Market, or by its Spanish initials MILA, will be Latin America’s second-largest stock market, after Brazil’s.

In a telephone interview this week, Juan Pablo Cordoba, president of the Colombian Stock Exchange, told me that “there is a strong commitment by the three countries to get it started before the end of the first semester this year.’’ MILA’s launching date will be announced after an internal technical try-out session next month, he said.

The idea behind MILA is that, in an increasingly globalized world, where the biggest stock markets are merging, it will be increasingly difficult for medium-sized or small economies to attract investments unless they are part of a bigger financial market, Cordoba said.

In addition to the New York and Frankfurt stock exchanges, the London and Toronto stock exchanges have announced their own mergers, and the Singapore stock exchange announced in October that it plans to buy the Australian Stock Exchange.

While the economies of Chile, Peru and Colombia have grown steadily in recent years, they are small by international standards. By unifying their operations, they will make it easier for domestic and foreign investors to buy stock in each of the participating countries’ companies, thus increasing their corporations’ ability to sell their stocks and attract investments.

“Colombian companies will not just have access to Colombian investors, but to those of Chile and Peru as well,’’ Cordoba said. “They will have access to more investors, and to a bigger pool of capital.’’

A second advantage, he said, is that “it will make us more visible to international investors, because it’s easier to invest in integrated markets than in individual countries.”

Unlike the New York-Frankfurt stock exchange merger, the Chile-Peru-Colombia stock market union will not initially be a merger of the companies running the stock exchanges, but an “operative integration” of the three stock exchanges.

Two of the participating stock exchanges, those of Peru and Colombia, are planning to go a step further and announce the merger of their respective holding companies later this year, he said.

Later, if everything goes well, other Latin American stock exchanges may join the group, he added.

“In Latin America, we have been talking about financial integration for the past 50 years, and nothing has been done,” Cordoba said. “We are doing something concrete, from the bottom up.”
Will it work, I asked Alberto Bernal, chief analyst with Bulltick Capital Markets in Miami.

“Sure. It will be very relevant for the development of capital markets in each of the three countries. And if Mexico joins then in the future, it will be even more so,” Bernal said.

My opinion: The Chile-Peru-Colombia stock market integration couldn’t have been more timely.

There is a new world trend of increasingly fewer and bigger stock exchanges, and countries without huge internal markets that are not part of any larger stock market — such as Argentina, Ecuador and Central American countries — will find it more difficult to attract capitals and make their companies more competitive.

We may be witnessing the redrafting of Latin America’s financial architecture. Will MILA be extended to include more countries in the region soon? Will the stock markets of Brazil and Mexico team up to become big players in the world financial scene? Will there ultimately be a unified Latin American stock exchange.

Latin American governments have failed to advance the cause of integration despite grandiose announcements at regional summits that they have created a region-wide common market. Maybe the region’s stock exchanges will be able to start doing what politicians have failed to do for so many years. We should wish them luck.